Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.677096 1.745095 1.816081 1.896036 1.983990 2.078264 2.187594
2025-11-30 1.602117 1.691814 1.788580 1.901635 2.031316 2.176984 2.355328
2025-12-07 1.518072 1.617855 1.727764 1.859283 2.014475 2.194644 2.424246
2025-12-14 1.467447 1.576300 1.698386 1.847615 2.028320 2.244738 2.531590
2025-12-21 1.421152 1.536190 1.667099 1.829922 2.031410 2.279280 2.619579
2025-12-28 1.399900 1.523356 1.666046 1.846930 2.076252 2.367191 2.783730
2026-01-04 1.386043 1.517960 1.672744 1.872668 2.132398 2.472646 2.982472
2026-01-11 1.358827 1.495038 1.656616 1.868223 2.148239 2.524285 3.108806
2026-01-18 1.337815 1.478542 1.647273 1.871302 2.173321 2.589468 3.262300
2026-01-25 1.303098 1.443947 1.613886 1.841361 2.151471 2.585544 3.305034
2026-02-01 1.279698 1.422489 1.596080 1.830758 2.155127 2.618210 3.410781
2026-02-08 1.257219 1.401409 1.577888 1.818605 2.155519 2.645392 3.509862
2026-02-15 1.236150 1.382107 1.562066 1.809947 2.161772 2.684052 3.639323
2026-02-22 1.223615 1.373023 1.558858 1.817875 2.191841 2.761582 3.853310
2026-03-01 1.193265 1.340513 1.524181 1.781160 2.154268 2.727641 3.844028
2026-03-08 1.175624 1.323764 1.509601 1.771642 2.156483 2.758568 3.971215
2026-03-15 1.156512 1.304646 1.491317 1.756181 2.148789 2.772126 4.064045
2026-03-22 1.150826 1.302592 1.495430 1.772202 2.189621 2.871161 4.366155
2026-03-29 1.148416 1.304619 1.504903 1.796038 2.243764 2.998891 4.774955
2026-04-05 1.135791 1.292964 1.495538 1.792172 2.253596 3.047131 4.997806
2026-04-12 1.126238 1.285089 1.491027 1.795113 2.274383 3.117635 5.305998
2026-04-19 1.106188 1.262976 1.466548 1.767796 2.244234 3.087622 5.309251
2026-04-26 1.093169 1.249935 1.454224 1.758133 2.242839 3.113796 5.496013